E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Building Support Base or Setting Up to Roll-over to Downside?

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures closed higher on Friday while posting an inside move. Volume was light and most of the price action was attributed to position-squaring ahead of the long U.S. holiday week-end.

The cash market and the futures markets are closed on Monday. When regular trading resumes on Tuesday, traders will have to decide whether to continue the downtrend, or try to chew away at a series of resistance levels.

On Friday, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 25620, up 157 or +0.61%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the low at 25320 and through the minor bottom at 25215 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through the main bottom at 24900 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend changes to up on a move through 26694.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 25955 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 21550 to 26694. Its retracement zone at 24122 to 23515 is a major downside target and value area.

The intermediate range is 24900 to 26694. The market is currently straddling its retracement zone at 25797 to 25585.

The short-term range is 26694 to 25215. Its retracement zone is resistance. It stopped the rally at 25955 on May 16.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 25620, the direction of the market on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 25585.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 25585 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with potential targets a 50% level at 25797, a 50% level at 25955 and a Fibonacci level at 26129.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 25585 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a plunge into 25320, followed by 25215. If the latter fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 24900.

The main bottom at 24900 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the 50% level at 24122.