E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Could Rollover to Downside Under 24900

Based on Wednesday’s price action and the close at 25133, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the February 8 bottom at 24900.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Blue chip stocks fell on Wednesday as another drop in Treasury yields led to increased concerns over the health of the U.S. economy. Increasing trade tensions over U.S.-China trade relations also weighed on prices. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its lowest level since September 2017, while a portion of the yield curve inverted, serving as a sign that a recession may be on the horizon.

On Wednesday, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 25133, down 236 or -0.94%.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Wednesday low at 24937 was slightly above the February 8 bottom at 24900. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target 50% of the entire rally from the late December bottom to the late April top.

The minor trend is also down. The downtrend was reaffirmed on Wednesday when sellers took out 25215. A trade through 25955 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 21550 to 26694. Its retracement zone at 24122 to 23515 is the primary downside target. This is a value area so buyers are likely to come in on a test of this area.

The intermediate range is 24900 to 26694. Its retracement zone at 25585 to 25797 is resistance.

The short-term range is 26694 to 24937. If the first retracement gains traction then its retracement zone at 25816 to 26023 will become the next upside target area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Wednesday’s price action and the close at 25133, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the February 8 bottom at 24900.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 24900 will indicate the presence of buyers. They will be the last line of defense before a potential steep break. If the move can attract enough counter-trend buyers then look for a potential drive into the intermediate Fibonacci level at 25585.

Bearish Scenario

Taking out 24900 will signal the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside since the next major downside target is a 50% level at 24122.

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