E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – February 1, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are crawling higher shortly before the cash market and after the release of a mixed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for January. Ahead of the report some traders thought the numbers could have been distorted by the 35 day government shutdown.

The headline number showed the economy added 304,000 jobs in January, well above the 165,000 forecast. December’s number was revised down from 312,000 to 222,000. November’s rose from 176,000 to 196,000. The three-month average is 241,000.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.9 percent to 4.0 percent. Wage growth, however, was the most disappointing news. Average hourly earnings rose just 3 cents on the month, or 0.1 percent, well below the 0.3 percent expected gain.

At 13:57 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are at 25045, up 69 or +0.28%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when the market traded through Wednesday’s high at 25068. If the upside momentum continues then look for a possible test of the minor top at 25125.

The minor top at 251.25 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside since the daily chart indicates there is no resistance until 26110.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 24284 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 26110 to 21452. Its retracement zone at 24890 to 24234 is controlling the direction of the Dow futures contract. Holding above this zone will indicate an upside bias. Traders should treat this zone as support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 24890.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 24890 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential acceleration to the upside over 25125. The daily chart indicates the market has room to run over this level.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 24890 will signal the presence of sellers. Increased selling pressure could drive the market into a cluster of levels at 24284, 24234 and 24216.