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James Hyerczyk

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial average futures are trading lower late in the session, giving up earlier gains, as traders weighed the prospects of new fiscal aid as well as disappointing U.S. jobs data.

Blue chip stocks rose on the opening despite a weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, but started to give back those earlier gains after Democratic Senator Joe Manchin said he would “absolutely not” support a round of $2,000 stimulus checks. President-elect Joe Biden had promised to pass a measure for bigger stimulus checks if Democrats secured a Senate majority, which they did earlier this week.

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At 19:28 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 30854, down 88 or -0.28%.

In economic news, the Labor Department reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls fell by 140,000. That was below expectations for 50,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Economists polled by Reuters predicted the economy added 71,000 new jobs in December.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, compared to a 6.8% estimate. Average Hourly Earnings came in a surprisingly higher 0.8% versus a forecast calling for a 0.2% gain.

Daily March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the previous day’s high. A move through the intraday high at 31148 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 29318.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 29760 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The Dow is also in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 correction.

The first minor range is 29760 to 31148. Its 50% level at 30454 is the first downside target.

The second minor range is 29318 to 31148. Its 50% level at 30233 is the second downside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 30942.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 30942 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling pressure to possibly extend into the 50% levels at 30454 and 30233.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 30942 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a retest of 31148.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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