E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Major Downside Target at 33926 – 33738

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower at the mid-session on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s update on monetary policy.

The Fed will conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think about easing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.

At 17:25 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are at 34039, down 138 or -0.40%.

The Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.

Policymakers are expected to raise their economic projections for the next rate hike that could reveal which Fed members have turned hawkish. The Dow could break sharply on this news.

In stock-related news, Merck & Co Inc is trading up 1.97% and Dow Inc is down 2.447%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 34016 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The next major main bottom comes in at 33300. A trade through 34711 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 34625 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the upside.

The nearest support is the 50% level at 34007. Today’s selling stopped just above this level.

The short-term range is 33131 to 34721. Its retracement zone at 33926 to 33738 is the next potential downside target. Counter-trend buyers could come in on the first test of this zone. If 33738 fails as support then look for a potential acceleration to the downside with main bottoms at 33300 and 33131 the next likely downside targets.

The new minor range is 34721 to 34016. Its retracement zone at 34369 to 34452 is a potential upside target area. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34007.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34007 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 34369 to 34452. Look for sellers on the first test. Overcoming 34452 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 34711 and 34721 the next major targets.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34007 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into 33926. If this fails the selling pressure could extend into 33738.

Watch for aggressive counter-trend buyers on a test of 33926 to 33738. Taking out 33738, however, could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next major targets coming in at 33300 and 33131.