E-mini Dow Lower as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Sentiment

U.S. blue chip stock index futures are edging lower early Thursday as investors digested corporate earnings reports, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

At 10:24 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34698, down 153 or -0.44%.

Late Tuesday, the minutes showed the Fed is prepared to hike interest rates and reduce its balance sheet soon, as investors had already expected.

The wildcard remains the ongoing tension at the Russia-Ukraine border, which is weighing on market sentiment.

In the latest development, NATO officials on Wednesday accused Russia of increasing troop numbers at the Ukrainian border. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that U.S. and Russian aircraft in the Mediterranean Sea flew close to each other over the weekend, rattling some investors.

In other news, investors are awaiting a quarterly report from Dow component Walmart. Investors will also get the opportunity to react to the latest Weekly Jobless Claims numbers, which are scheduled to be released Thursday morning.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 34205 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 35752 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 36832 to 33031. Its retracement zone at 34932 to 35380 is resistance.

The minor range is 33031 to 35752. Its retracement zone at 34392 to 34070 is support. It stopped the selling at 34205 on February 14.

The major support zone is 33461 to 32665. It stopped the selling at 33031 on January 24.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34932.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34932 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the retracement zone at 34392 – 34070. Inside this zone is the main bottom at 34205.

The Fibonacci level at 34070 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 33461 the next likely downside target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34932 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 35752.

Taking out 35752 will change the main trend to up and could trigger an acceleration into the next main top at 36390.