E-mini Dow Sellers Targeting 34397 – 34288
June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower at the mid-session on Friday as the latest monthly jobs report signaled resilience in the U.S. economy, supporting an aggressive tightening policy by the Federal Reserve.
The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report showed that U.S. labor market was rapidly tightening while the rate of unemployment was dropping.
U.S. employers added 431,000 jobs in March. While the numbers fell short of economists’ expectations, the jobless rate dropped to 3.6%, the lowest since February 2020 and Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.4%.
After the report was released, the financial futures markets were indicating a 72.8% chance of a 50-basis point interest rate hike in May. The Fed last month increased it by 25 basis points for the first time since 2018 and policymakers have signaled readiness for aggressive rate hikes to combat decades-high inflation.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 35281 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 34214.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through 34445 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.
The main range is 36708 to 32086. The E-mini Dow is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 34397 to 34942.
The minor range is 34214 to 35281. The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the weak side of its pivot at 34748, making it resistance. The level falls inside the main retracement zone.
The intermediate range is 35649 to 32086. Its retracement zone at 34288 to 33868 is another potential downside target.
Two retracement levels at 34397 and 34288 combine to form a potential support cluster.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34748.
A sustained move under 34748 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 34397 to 34288.
Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of 34397 to 34288. If it fails then look for a quick test of the main bottom at 34214. Taking out this level will change the main trend to down with 33868 the next potential downside target.
A sustained move over 34748 will signal the presence of buyers with 34942 the next target. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the main top at 35281 the next major target.