E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – August 22, 2019 Forecast

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower on Thursday after an early session rally failed to gain enough traction to continue the move. We could be looking at position-squaring ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the central bankers’ symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. Traders could also be reacting to another brief yield curve inversion that took place shortly after the release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday that may have reignited fears of a recession.

At 09:00 GMT, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 7734.75, down 15.50 or -0.20%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottoms at 7388.25 and 7224.50.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 7789.50. A move through 7388.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This supports the upward shift in momentum. A trade through 7652.25 will change the minor trend to down.

The short-term range is 8051.75 to 7224.50. The index is currently straddling the bullish side of its retracement zone at 7638.25 to 7735.75. Trader reaction to this zone will determine whether the trend changes to up.

On the downside, the major retracement zone at 7510.25 to 7382.50 is new support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 7734.75, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 7735.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 7735.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a drive into the main top at 7789.50. Taking out this top will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target a resistance cluster at 7883.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 7735.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a support cluster at 7715.75 to 7708.25.

Look for an acceleration to the downside if 7708.25 fails. This could trigger a break into the minor bottom at 7652.25, followed by the short-term 50% level at 7638.00.

If 7638.00 fails then look for another acceleration into the uptrending Gann angle at 7548.25.

Overview

Another way to look at the chart pattern:  Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 7735.75 and for a downside bias on a sustained move under 7638.00.