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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 index futures are expected to open lower based on the pre-market trade. The downside momentum appears to be continuing following last week’s selling spree.

The index is now more than 22 percent below its record high reached in October and is in a bear market. Other than short-covering or profit-taking ahead of Tuesday’s Christmas holiday, there doesn’t seem to be anything that could stop the selling from continuing today. Sellers are continuing to respond to bearish factors such as rising interest rates, the lingering trade dispute between the U.S. and China, and plunging crude oil prices.

At 1346 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 6013.25, down 45.75 or -0.76%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The market is in no position to change the main trend to up, but it is inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

If the downside momentum continues then look for sellers to take a run at the August 25, 2017 main bottom at 5880.50.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 index futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 6059.00.

Bullish Scenario

Given the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, overcoming and sustaining a move over 6059.00 will indicate the return of buyers. This could trigger an intraday short-covering rally. A close over this level will form a closing price reversal bottom. This could fuel the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6059.00 will signal that the selling pressure is getting stronger. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 5880.50 later today.

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