E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – January 16, 2017 Forecast

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. The index is also trading in a tight range on low holiday volume. The early inside move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

There are no major reports today and the U.S. is on bank holiday so investors have to watch for possible volatility spikes throughout the session.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 5063.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The market is in the window of time for a closing price reversal top. A trade through 4990.25 will turn the minor trend to down.

The short-term range is 4990.25 to 5063.25. Its 50% level or pivot is 5026.75. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The main range is 4850.00 to 5063.25. If there is a correction then its retracement zone at 4956.50 to 4931.50 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

The direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s high at 5063.25.

Taking out 5063.25 will signal the presence of buyers.

Taking out 5063.25 then breaking back below the level will signal the presence of sellers. A lower close will produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. The inability to overcome this price will also signal the presence of sellers.

If there is a sell-off then the first target is the short-term pivot at 5026.75. This is followed by a major uptrending angle at 5010.00. Taking out this angle will indicate the selling is getting stronger with the next target coming in at 4990.25.

The market is either going to take out 5063.25 and accelerate to the upside, or sellers are going to come in at this level to fuel intraday weakness.