E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – January 24, 2019 Forecast

The blue chip Dow is trading slightly higher shortly after the opening. The market was set-up for a firm opening based on the pre-trade session, but sellers took control and the buying dried up after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said China and the U.S. were not close to striking a trade deal.

Ross told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the U.S. is “miles and miles” from a trade deal with China, adding the two countries have “lots and lots of issues.”

His comments put a little fear into the markets and traders adjusted their positions accordingly. The biggest concern is that the U.S. and China won’t make the March 1 deadline and both countries will implement higher tariffs.

At 1520 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 24566, up 17 or +0.03%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 24745 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a trade through 22563.

The minor trend is also up. It will change to down on a move through 24216. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The major retracement zone resistance is 24234 to 24890. This zone stopped the rally at 24745 earlier in the week.

The main range is 22563 to 24745. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to extend into its retracement zone at 23654 to 23397. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 24234.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 24234 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this can generate enough upside momentum then we could see a test of this week’s high at 24745. This is followed by a main top at 24860 then the major Fibonacci level at 24890.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 24234 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the minor bottom at 24216. Look for the selling pressure to increase on a trade through this level. If it fails then look for an acceleration into the retracement zone at 23654 to 23397.