E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 14883.50 Pivot Sets the Tone

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures finished lower on Friday, while posting an inside move. The chart pattern suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

Fueling the inside move was Friday’s mixed jobs report that offered something for both bears and bulls. The headline number was a major disappointment as the economy added just 194,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department reported. That was well below the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000.

On Friday, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 14808.25, down 73.00 or -0.49%.

On the positive side, the unemployment rate itself fell to a much lower point than economists forecast. At 4.8%, that’s the same level seen in late 2016. Plus, August’s jobs report was revised up to 366,000 compared to the initial read of 235,000.

The fact that the gain in the headline number was modest could temper expectations for a swift acceleration in economic growth following an apparent sharp slowdown in the third quarter, but is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve from starting the process of reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November.

September’s employment report is the last one available before the Federal Reserve’s November 2-3 policy meeting.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher.

A trade through 15399.25 will change the main trend to up. A move through 14367.75 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 15001.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The short-term range is 15702.25 to 14367.75. Its retracement zone at 15035.00 to 15192.50 is potential resistance.

The first minor range is 15399.25 to 14367.75. The index closed on the weak side of its pivot at 14883.50, making it potential resistance.

The second minor range is 14367.75 to 15001.25. Its pivot at 14684.50 is the nearest downside target.

The main retracement zone support is 14308.50 to 13979.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14883.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14883.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 14684.50.

Counter-trend buyers could come in on the first test of 14684.50. They are going to try to form a secondary higher bottom. If this level fails as support then look for an acceleration to the downside with 14367.75 the next potential downside target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14883.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into 15001.25, followed by 15035.00.

Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of 15035.00 to 15192.50. Taking out 15192.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.