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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures finished slightly lower on Monday in a mostly lackluster trade. Volume was below average due to a U.S. bank holiday, and the index posted an inside trading day, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility.

Additionally, although the index was able to claw back most of its earlier losses, there was just not enough buying left at the end of the day to turn the market higher. Helping to keep a lid on prices were the lack of clarity over U.S.-China trade relations and the escalating protests in Hong Kong.

Shares of Cisco Systems and Qualcomm were also a drag on the index with both stocks dropping 1.5% and 2.3%, respectively, following analyst downgrades.

On Monday, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 8249.75, down 7.50 or -0.09%.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 8282.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 7583.25. This is highly unlikely, however, due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, investors should be on alert for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 8161.00 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 8161.00 to 8282.25. Its 50% level or pivot at 8221.50 has been straddled the last three sessions.

The second minor range is 8020.50 to 8282.25. Its 50% level or pivot at 8151.25 is potential support.

The third minor range is 7810.25 to 8282.25. Its pivot at 8046.25 is another potential support level.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on yesterday’s price action and the close at 8249.75, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the first pivot at 8221.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 8221.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the record high at 8282.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with no objective at this time.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 8221.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into the minor bottom at 8161.00, followed closely by the 50% level at 8151.25. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next two targets 8046.25 and 8020.50.

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