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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures soared to a record high shortly after the opening, following a tweet from President Trump that said, “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!”

The rally was primarily fueled by a surge in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). Both technology ETFs rose more than 1% to record highs on the hopes of a trade deal.

At 15:09 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 8483.50, up 78.00 or +0.92%.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up earlier in the session after buyers took out the previous main top at 8458.75.

A trade through 8168.25 will change the main trend to down. Today’s session begins with the index inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top. Although upside momentum is strong, traders should continue to be aware of the possibility of a closing price reversal top especially given the volatility of President Trump’s tweets.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 8483.25, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 8405.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 8405.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. There is no resistance since the index is at an all-time high. The only worry for bullish traders should be the closing price reversal top.

Bearish Scenario

The first sign of weakness will be a sustained move under the previous main top at 8458.75. The second sign of weakness will be a break under yesterday’s close at 8405.50. Finally, crossing to the weak side of a steep uptrending Gann angle at 8392.25 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a steep break into a minor bottom at 8297.00, followed by a series of uptrending Gann angles at 8287.25, 8280.25 and 8258.25.

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