The Week Ahead: Markets Watch Fed Signals, Energy Volatility and Inflation Data

Market Overview

U.S. equities declined for a third consecutive week as geopolitical tensions and volatile energy markets weighed on sentiment. The conflict involving Iran and concerns about disruptions to global oil supply pushed energy prices sharply higher and increased market volatility.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,558.47, falling -943.08 (-1.99%) for the week. The S&P 500 finished at 6,632.19, down -107.83 (-1.60%), while the Nasdaq Composite ended at 22,105.36, losing -282.32 (-1.26%).

Energy markets were a central driver. Oil prices surged early in the week as traders assessed the risk of disruptions to shipping routes in the Middle East, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices later eased somewhat after a coordinated emergency release of roughly 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves.

Recent inflation data suggested modest progress in easing price pressures. Core CPI rose 0.2% in February and 2.5% year over year, while headline CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually. However, the sharp rise in oil prices could place renewed pressure on inflation in the coming months.

Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. Markets widely expect policymakers to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with investors focusing on updated economic projections and the policy outlook.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Mar 16

Before the Open:
• Dollar Tree (DLTR), est. $2.53
• KE Holdings (BEKE), est. $0.73
• Science Applications (SAIC), est. $1.93

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast 4.0 (prior 7.1)
• 13:15 GMT – Capacity Utilization Rate, forecast 76.2% (prior 76.2%)
• 13:15 GMT – Industrial Production m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior 0.7%)
• 14:00 GMT – NAHB Housing Market Index, forecast 37 (prior 36)

After the Close:
• Getty Images (GETY), est. $0.03
• Semtech (SMTC), est. $0.43

Tuesday, Mar 17

Before the Open:
• Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO), est. $2.05
• HUYA (HUYA), est. $0.16
• Tencent Music (TME), est. $1.53

Economic Releases:
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Weekly Employment Change (prior 15.5K)
• 14:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales m/m, forecast -1.2% (prior -0.8%)
• Tentative – CB Leading Index m/m (prior -0.2%)
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close:
• Oklo (OKLO), est. -$0.16
• DocuSign (DOCU), est. $0.95
• Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS), est. -$0.60
• lululemon athletica (LULU), est. $4.78
• Titan America (TTAM), est. $0.25
• ZTO Express (ZTO), est. $3.14

Wednesday, Mar 18

Before the Open:
• Almonty Industries (ALM), est. $0.00
• General Mills (GIS), est. $0.73
• Hello Group (MOMO), est. $1.36
• Jabil (JBL), est. $2.49
• Macy’s (M), est. $1.58
• SailPoint (SAIL), est. $0.08
• Weibo (WB), est. $0.32
• Williams-Sonoma (WSM), est. $2.90

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core PPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.8%)
• 12:30 GMT – PPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.5%)
• 14:00 GMT – Factory Orders m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior -0.7%)
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories (prior 3.8M)
• 18:00 GMT – Federal Funds Rate, forecast 3.75% (prior 3.75%)
• 18:00 GMT – FOMC Economic Projections
• 18:00 GMT – FOMC Statement
• 18:30 GMT – FOMC Press Conference
• 20:00 GMT – TIC Long-Term Purchases, forecast 71.6B (prior 28.0B)

After the Close:
• dLocal (DLO), est. $0.18
• Five Below (FIVE), est. $4.00
• Heartflow (HTFL), est. -$0.17
• Micron Technology (MU), est. $8.67

Thursday, Mar 19

Before the Open:
• Accelerant Holdings (ARX), est. $0.18
• Accenture (ACN), est. $2.85
• Alibaba (BABA), est. $11.24
• Arcos Dorados (ARCO), est. $0.20
• Aveanna (AVAH), est. $0.15
• Caleres (CAL), est. -$0.38
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ), est. -$0.49
• Darden Restaurants (DRI), est. $2.95
• Signet Jewelers (SIG), est. $6.11

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 215K (prior 213K)
• 12:30 GMT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast 17.5 (prior 16.3)
• 14:00 GMT – New Home Sales, forecast 723K (prior 745K)
• 14:00 GMT – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage (prior -38B)

After the Close:
• FedEx (FDX), est. $4.11
• Planet Labs (PL), est. -$0.05

Friday, Mar 20

Before the Open:
No reports scheduled.

Economic Releases:
No releases scheduled.

After the Close:
No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Wednesday: Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve Chair) – 18:30 GMT

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Investors will focus on the updated Summary of Economic Projections and Powell’s comments for signals on the timing of future rate cuts and how policymakers assess inflation risks tied to higher energy prices.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 46,558.48 (-1.99%), support at 45,728.93, 45,452.03, 45,377.59 (52-Week SMA), resistance at 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,105.36 (-1.26%), support at 21,898.29, 21,237.71 (52-Week SMA), 20,560.17 and 19,334.98, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,632.19 (-1.60%), support at 6,521.92, 6,398.54 (52-Week SMA), 6,360.58 and 6,212.69, resistance at 7,004.28.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

The Federal Reserve meeting is the key event for markets this week. While policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged, investors will closely watch the updated economic projections and policy statement for clues on the expected timing of future rate cuts.

Inflation data will also remain a focus. Wednesday’s Producer Price Index report will provide an updated reading on upstream price pressures and may influence expectations for the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge.

At the same time, developments in the Middle East and the resulting volatility in energy markets remain an important factor for investor sentiment. Elevated oil prices could influence inflation expectations and interest rate pricing, making the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance particularly important for near-term market direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.