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E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Upside Momentum is Slowing

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jul 14, 2019, 14:11 UTC

There are three possibilities on Monday. First, buyers can take out 7967.50 and the rally could just keep going. Second, the selling can be strong enough to prevent a trade through 7967.50. Third, buyers can take out 7967.50 then close lower for the session.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures posted a new all-time high on Friday as well as an all-time highest close. Traders continued to push prices higher without much fanfare, suggesting the buying may be slowing. After the strong surge on Wednesday in reaction to the dovish testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the index posted two consecutive narrow trading sessions even forming a closing price reversal top on July 11. This suggests there are sellers. Perhaps investors are preparing for this week’s start of earnings season.

On Friday, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 7960.00, up 41.25 or +0.52%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 7967.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

There is no resistance with the index at an all-time high. The best sign of a top will be a closing price reversal.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 7743.00.

As of Friday’s close, the short-term range is 7743.00 to 7967.50. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 7743.00.

The intermediate range is 7446.25 to 7967.50. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 7706.75 to 7645.25 will become the next downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at 7960.00, the direction of the index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 7967.50.

There are three possibilities on Monday. First, buyers can take out 7967.50 and the rally could just keep going. Second, the selling can be strong enough to prevent a trade through 7967.50. Third, buyers can take out 7967.50 then close lower for the session.

Bullish Scenario

If buyers take out 7967.50 then look for strong support at 7967.50 to 7960.00. This will be the most bullish scenario.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome 7967.50 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out Friday’s low at 7894.25 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of pivot at 7855.25. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next targets the main bottom at 7743.00 and the intermediate 50% level at 7706.75.

The most bearish scenario will be a higher-high and a lower close. If confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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