E-mini NASDAQ Ready for Late Session Test of 13984.25

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are testing their low of the session shortly after the mid-session on Thursday as escalating tensions between the West and Russia surrounding Ukraine unnerved investors, with some disappointing earnings adding to the gloom.

Among the bearish developments, Russia expelled deputy U.S. ambassador Bartle Gorman, warning of a U.S. response amid heightened fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden said the threat of an invasion is “very high”.

At 18:37 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14304.75, down 295.25 or -2.02%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at $348.80, down $7.24 or -2.03%.

In stock related news, chipmaker Nvidia is down 6.7% as flat gross margins and concern about its exposure to the crypto market overshadowed upbeat current-quarter revenue forecast.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 14031 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 15260.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 14668.50 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The index is currently trading inside a major retracement zone at 14515.75 to 13984.25. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to 14515.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14515.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to continue into 14031 and 13984.25. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 13706.00 the next major target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14515.75 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 14668.50. Taking out this level will change momentum to the upside.