E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 12, 2019 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the cash market opening. The index was trading higher early in the session after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set its daily midpoint for yuan trading at 7.0211 per dollar. This was weaker than Friday’s session, but higher than market expectations.

At 13:31 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2901.00, down 18.50 or -0.63%.

The index turned lower after Hong Kong International Airport cancelled all departures for the remainder of the day, citing serious disruptions due to intensifying protests.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of a closing price reversal bottom at 2775.75 on August 6.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 3029.50. A move through 2775.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 2732.25 to 3029.50. Its retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75 is controlling the near-term direction of the index. It is also potential support.

The short-term range is 3029.50 to 2775.75. Its retracement zone at 2902.50 to 2932.50 is resistance. It essentially stopped the counter-trend rally last week.

The minor range is 2775.75 to 2940.75. Its 50% level at 2858.25 is the next downside target. It also falls inside the main retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75.

Daily Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2901.00, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 2902.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2902.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the main 50% level at 2880.75. If this level fails to hold then look for a move into the minor 50% level at 2858.25, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 2845.75.

The Fib level is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the main bottom at 2775.75.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over 2902.75 will signal the return of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into 2932.50 to 2940.75. This area is a potential trigger point for an upside breakout.