E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 20, 2019 Forecast

Based on the current price at 2924.25, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 2932.50 and the uptrending Gann angle at 2913.50.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly higher during the pre-market session. However, the volume has been light and the trade, two-sided at times, indicating there is no clear bias yet.

Traders are saying the market is likely being underpinned by hope the U.S. and China will find a quick solution to ending their trade war. However, hope of additional stimulus from the European Central Bank and a fresh move by the People’s Bank of China to perk up the economy are probably providing the most support.

There are no major reports today so there is no “theme” in the market. Traders appear to reacting to almost every headline in the hopes of generating some volatility.

Earlier today, Home Depot provided some support by announcing better-than-expected earnings. However, gains were likely capped when it warned tariffs could hit consumer spending and cut its full-year revenue outlook.

After today’s trade, the focus will shift to the Fed with the release of its monetary policy minutes on Wednesday, and the key speech by Fed Chief Jerome Powell on Friday at Jackson Hole.

At 12:46 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2924.25, up 0.50 or -0.02%.

Despite the early gains, the dip in Treasury yields and the stronger Japanese Yen indicate today is likely to be a “risk-off” session. Political concerns over Italy may be behind the selling pressure.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, upside momentum is being driven by a pair of closing price reversal bottoms at 2817.75 and 2773.75. Both are also secondary higher bottoms.

A trade through 2944.25 will change the main trend to up, while a move through 2817.75 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 3029.50 to 2775.75. Its retracement zone at 2902.75 to 2932.50 is providing resistance. It is currently being tested.

The main range is 2732.25 to 3029.50. Its retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75 is controlling the near-term direction of the index. This zone is support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at 2924.25, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 2932.50 and the uptrending Gann angle at 2913.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2932.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to take out 2944.25, turning the main trend to up. The rally could then continue into the downtrending Gann angle at 2961.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2932.50 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the uptrending Gann angle at 2913.50 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a labored break with potential targets the short-term 50% level at 2902.50, the downtrending Gann angle at 2893.50, the main 50% level at 2880.75 and the short-term uptrending Gann angle at 2865.50.

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