E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 22, 2019 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. Buyers attempted a rally early in the session, but couldn’t attract enough volume to sustain the move and the market turned lower. The price action suggests that big money is reluctant to take a position ahead of Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium on Friday.

At 10:34 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 2924.25, down 5.00 or -0.17%.

Stock market investors are hoping Powell signals the Fed will take aggressive steps to perk up the economy and prevent a recession. However, after digesting yesterday’s Fed minutes, there are some doubts as to whether central bank policymakers will be aggressive enough.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Today’s earlier move to 2939.00 fell short of a change in trend. A trade through 2944.25 will change the main trend to up. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2817.75.

The short-term range is 3029.50 to 2775.75. Its retracement zone at 2902.50 to 2932.50 is acting like resistance. The market is currently inside this range.

The main retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75 is support. This zone is also controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2924.25, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 2932.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2932.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the main top at 2944.25.

Taking out 2944.25 will change the main trend to up. This should trigger a quick move into the downtrending Gann angle at 2953.50. This angle is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target angle coming in at 2991.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2932.50 will signal the presence of buyers. The first downside target is a short-term 50% level at 2902.50, followed closely by an uptrending Gann angle at 2897.25.

If 2897.25 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main 50% level at 2880.75.