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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 5, 2019 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Aug 5, 2019, 13:26 UTC

Watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of 2880.75 to 2845.75. The market could reverse to the upside if the buying is strong enough.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open sharply lower based on the pre-market trade. However, the market is rapidly approaching a major retracement zone. Trader reaction to this area will tell us if sellers are in panic mode and if buyers are looking for value.

If this is a panic sell then the market may just slice through this zone. If the market is testing a value area then buyers could show up to slow down or even stop the price slide.

At 13:13 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2887.50, down 45.25 or -1.53%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next downside target is the main bottom at 2871.50. This is the last main bottom before the June 3 bottom at 2732.25.

Potential resistance is the old main bottoms at 2914.50, 2963.50 and 2969.50. The main trend changes to up on a move through 3029.50. This is highly unlikely today, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, we should start watching for a closing price reversal bottom.

The main range is 2732.25 to 3029.50. Its retracement zone at 2880.75 to 2845.75 is the primary downside target. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of the area. This is a value zone so buyers could try to establish support inside this zone. If it fails then it will mean the sellers are too aggressive.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2887.50, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 2880.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2880.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a quick break into the main bottom at 2871.50. Taking out this level could drive the index into the major Fibonacci level at 2845.75. Watch for aggressive counter-trend buyers or value-seekers on a test of 2880.75 to 2845.75.

If 2845.75 fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the uptrending Gann angle at 2820.75. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into the angle at 2776.25. This is the last potential support angle before the 2732.25 main bottom.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2880.75 will signal the return of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential rally into 2908.25 then 2933.50. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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