E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Covid Relief News Could Fuel Follow-Through Rally

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed higher on Friday, reversing a three-day setback, as government data showing faster-than-expected monthly jobs growth reinforced bets on an economic rebound driven by massive fiscal stimulus and vaccination drives.

The rally came as a surprise after robust non-farm payrolls data drove the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a new one-year high of 1.626%.

On Friday, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 3839.00, up 73.50 or +1.91%.

All major S&P 500 sectors rose, led by gains in energy and financial stocks. Rate-sensitive bank stocks rose about 1.6% on prospects of an improved economic outlook.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3720.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 3934.50.

The minor range is 3959.25 to 3720.50. Its 50% level at 3840.00 stopped the buying on Friday, but will be an important pivot on Monday.

The short-term 50% level at 3807.75 and the intermediate 50% level at 3777.50 is support.

The main range is 3216.25 to 3959.25. Its retracement zone at 3587.75 to 3500.00 is the major support zone controlling the longer-term trend.

Short-Term Outlook

Based on Friday’s price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 3840.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3840.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a near-term surge into 3934.50. Taking it out could lead to a test of the record high at 3959.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3839.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a labored break into a pair of 50% levels at 3807.75 and 3777.50.

If 3777.50 fails as support then look for a retest of last week’s low at 3720.50.

Side Notes

The market could start off on a strong note on Monday after the Senate passed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package on Saturday as Democrats rush to send out a fresh round of aid. Although the news has probably been priced into the market for weeks, we could see some knee-jerk buying especially in the wake of Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report.