E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 15, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open higher after recovering from early session weakness. The index is on track for its seventh weekly gain in eight. The market is trading higher despite early weakness that was fueled by yesterday closing price reversal top. Traders seem to be shrugging off yesterday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales report that may have fueled the sell-off.

At 14:06 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2756.25, up 12.75 or +0.45%.

The strong rebound rally suggests that investors are casting doubts over yesterday’s retail sales report. Some say the numbers were skewed because of the government shutdown. Others are saying the numbers don’t make sense given the strength in the recent jobs report.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside after yesterday’s closing price reversal top and today’s confirmation of the chart pattern.

A trade through 2763.00 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2680.75.

The short-term range is 2680.75 to 2763.00. Its 50% level or pivot is 2721.75. This is followed by a major Fibonacci level at 2711.50. This area is support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action, the direction of the index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at 2760.75.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over 2760.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This will also put the index in a bullish position. Taking out 2763.00 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with the December 3 main top at 2319.00 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome 2760.75 and a sustained move under this level will signal the return of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the support cluster at 2721.75 to 2720.75. Since the main trend is up, we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area.

If 2720.75 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into the Fibonacci level at 2711.50, followed by the uptrending Gann angle at 2700.75.