E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 25, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. The buying is being fueled by the news that President Trump will delay additional trade tariffs on Chinese goods set to begin on March 1. Traders are optimistic that this news will eventually lead to a trade deal. Sources familiar with the situation also told CNBC that the United States and China are discussing a late March meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida.

At 11:50 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2804.00, up 12.75 or +0.46%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2798.00 reaffirmed the uptrend earlier in the session. A trade through 2729.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A move through 2764.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

Due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the session begins with the market in the window of time for a closing price reversal top. We’ve already had a higher-high, now all we need is a lower close to complete the pattern. If confirmed on Tuesday, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 2791.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2791.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into an uptrending Gann angle at 2809.00. Crossing to the bullish side of the angle at 2809.00 could trigger a surge into the December 3 main top at 2819.00.

The main top at 2819.00 is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target another steep uptrending Gann angle at 2840.75.

Bearish Scenario

The failure to overcome 2809.00 will indicate the buying is getting weaker. If sellers take control then look for a drive into Friday’s close at 2791.25. The intraday selling pressure could increase if this level fails with the first key target the short-term uptrending Gann angle at 2769.00.

Basically, today’s early rally could strengthen over 2809.00 and weaken under 2791.25.