E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Intraday Strength Over 2875.50, Weakness Under 2872.75

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures rebounded from steep losses earlier in the session on Friday on the hope that there is still time to strike a trade agreement with China, even with the U.S. imposing new tariffs on Chinese imports just after midnight.

The benchmark index rebounded to nearly unchanged after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China trade talks were “constructive.” Chinese Vice Premier Liu He also said the talks went “fairly well,” according to reports.

Additionally, Bloomberg News is reporting the U.S. told China it had three to four weeks to come to an agreement or the White House would enact more tariffs.

At 18:05 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2871.75, down 1.00 or -0.01%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2826.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 2961.25. This is highly unlikely today given current volatility levels. However, the index is down eight days from its last main top on May 1. This puts the index inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. Based on today’s price action, a trade through 2889.00 or today’s high will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 2726.50 to 2961.25. Its retracement zone at 2843.75 to 2816.00 provided support for a second straight day when the bottom hit its intraday low at 2826.00.

The intermediate range is 2789.50 to 2961.25. Its retracement zone at 2875.25 to 2855.00 has been crossed twice on Friday so it’s acting like a pivot.

The short-term range is 2961.25 to 2826.00. If the market turns higher today then look for a test of its retracement zone at 2893.75 to 2909.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at 2871.75, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at 2875.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2875.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This will also put the index higher for the session and in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

Taking out 2875.50 could trigger a rally into the short-term 50% level at 2893.75. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this level. Overtaking it could send the index into the Fibonacci level at 2909.50. Once again look for sellers.

Taking out 2909.50 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under yesterday’s close at 2872.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the index into the intermediate Fib level at 2855.00. This is followed by the main 50% level at 2843.75. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into today’s low at 2826.00 and the main Fibonacci level at 2816.00.

Side Note:  Aggressive intraday traders may want to use today’s mid-point at 2857.50 as there reference level into the close. This combines with the intermediate Fib level to form a potential support cluster.