E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – January 4, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open higher based on the pre-market trade. The catalysts behind the rally are the strong jobs report and solid gains in technology stocks.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 312,000 in December, blowing away the 176,000 estimate. Furthermore, wages jumped 3.2 percent from a year ago and 0.4 percent since November. The Unemployment Rate jumped to 3.9 percent from 3.7 percent, but this was because more workers joined the labor force.

At 1425 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2484.00, up 36.00 or +1.50%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on December 26.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 2523.00.

The main range is 2690.50 to 2316.75. Its retracement zone at 2503.75 to 2547.75 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, we could see sellers on the first test of 2503.75.

The short-term range is 2316.75 to 2523.00. Its retracement zone at 2419.75 to 2395.50 is the primary downside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 2450.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2450.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the 50% level at 2503.75. Overtaking this level should drive the index into the uptrending Gann angle at 2508.75.

Crossing to the strong side of 2508.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This should lead to a test of 2523.00. Taking out this price will change the main trend to up. This should trigger a surge into the Fibonacci level at 2547.75. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2450.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the index into a series of potential support levels at 2419.50, 2412.75 and 2395.50.