E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – July 6, 2017 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. Traders are reacting to the situation in North Korea and today’s weaker-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report.

Unemployment claims came in slightly higher-than-expected. Next up is the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report at 1400 GMT. It is expected to come in at 56.5, slightly below the previous read.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2445.00 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger a rally into the next main top at 2451.50.

A trade through 2402.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The daily chart is wide open under this bottom with 2341.75 the next major target.

The short-term range is 2451.50 to 2402.25. Its retracement zone is 2427.00 to 2432.75. This zone has acted like resistance for the last four sessions.

The main range is 2341.75 to 2451.50. If there is a sell-off then its retracement zone at 2396.50 to 2383.50 becomes the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2421.50 and the earlier price action, the direction of the index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 2427.00.

A sustained move under 2427.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could create enough downside momentum to challenge 2402.25 then 2396.50.

A sustained move over 2427.00 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of 2432.75. This is the trigger point for a surge into 2445.00. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into 2451.50.

Trader reaction to 2427.00 will tell us if the buying is getting stronger, or if sellers are increasing control.