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James Hyerczyk

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching lower on Thursday, shortly before the cash market opening. Helping to keep a lid on prices is weakness in Asia and Europe. The catalyst behind the selling pressure is fear and uncertainty over the spreading of a mystery virus in China that has killed at least 17 people.

At 13:15 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3313.75, down 6.00 or -0.19%.

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Some investors are already trimming positions in anticipation of a worsening of events. Most seem to be waiting for an announcement from the World Health Organization (WHO) as to whether we have a developing global emergency. Stocks are likely to plunge if an emergency is declared since is likely to have a major impact on the global economy.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing, however, yesterday’s closing price reversal top and today’s subsequent follow-through break, suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside.

A trade through 3337.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 3181.00 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely today, but the minor trend could change to down.

The minor trend is up according to the swing chart. A trade through 3307.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 3307.25 to 3337.50. Its 50% level at 3322.50 is controlling the direction of the index today.

The main range is 3181.50 to 3337.50. If the minor trend changes to down then its 50% level at 3259.25 will become the next downside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3313.75, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3322.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3322.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 3307.25 will change the minor trend to down. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside.

Look for the downside momentum to increase under 3307.25 with the first target an uptrending Gann angle at 3261.00, followed closely by another 50% level at 3259.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3322.50 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at 3337.50. This is followed by a series of uptrending Gann angles at 3341.00, 3343.00 and 3350.25.

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