E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 3265.50 to Sustain Upside Momentum

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. The market fell off its high after the release of a disappointing U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims report. The move spooked investors because it is an indication of a slowing recovery.

U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 1.416 million for last week, marking the 18^th straight week in which initial claims rose by more than 1 million. Economists expected another 1.3 million workers to have filed initial claims for state unemployment benefits, according to Dow Jones.

At 13:24 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3264.00, down 1.50 or -0.05%.

In other news, home builder PulteGroup Inc jumped about 5% after posting higher quarterly profit, as record low mortgage rates encouraged Americans to buy homes.

Of the 75 S&P companies that have reported quarterly results, 77.3% of them have beaten profit estimates.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out the previous day’s high. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3105.25.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3227.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 3188.50 to 3284.50. Its 50% level at 3236.50 is potential support.

The short-term range is 3105.25 to 3284.50. Its 50% level at 3194.75 to 3173.75 is another potential support area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the prolonged move up in terms of price and time and the earlier price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3265.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3265.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the first pivot at 3236.50, followed by the minor bottom at 3227.25.

Taking out 3227.25 will shift momentum to the downside. This could trigger a further break into 3194.75, 3188.50 and 3173.75.

The trigger point for an acceleration to the downside is 3173.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3265.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a retest of the intraday high at 3284.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The direction of the December Comex gold market on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1892.60.