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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – November 16, 2018 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Nov 16, 2018, 14:47 UTC

Based on the early price action and yesterday’s closing price reversal bottom, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s high at 2736.75.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open lower based on the pre-market trade. Weakness in the tech sector is being blamed for the early selling pressure. The market is trading inside yesterday’s range since there was no follow-through to the upside following yesterday’s closing price reversal bottom.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Weekly December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum may be trying to shift to the upside after yesterday’s closing price reversal bottom. A trade through 2736.75 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2-3 day retracement to the upside.

A trade through 2671.25 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The next downside targets are a pair of bottoms at 2603.00 and 2602.75. A trade through 2818.00 will change the main trend to up.

The major retracement zone is 2748.50 to 2701.50. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 2603.00 to 2818.00. Its retracement zone at 2710.50 to 2685.00 is another potential support area.

The main range is 2947.00 to 2603.00. Its retracement zone at 2775.00 to 2815.50 is the primary upside target. This zone stopped the rally last week at 2818.00.

Combining the major and short-term retracement zones makes 2710.50 to 2685.00 the key support zone today.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and yesterday’s closing price reversal bottom, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s high at 2736.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2736.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a move into the series of retracement levels at 2710.50, 2701.50 and 2685.00. If these levels fail then look for the selling to extend into the closing price reversal bottom at 2671.25.

The daily chart is wide open under 2671.25 so watch for a potential acceleration to the downside with targets coming in at 2603.00 to 2602.75.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out 2736.75 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. If this can create enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the major 50% level at 2748.50. Crossing to the strong side of this level will put the market in a bullish position with the next target level 2775.00.

The rally can expand into 2815.50, 2818.00 and 2824.25 if 2775.00 is taken out with conviction.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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