E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Pivot at 2986.00 Controlling Direction Today

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher early Monday as investors claw back some of Friday’s losses that were triggered by reports that the White House is considering limiting U.S. investment into China, including a possible delisting of Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.

The early strength is being attributed to better-than-expected factory activity in China. Later today, investors will get the opportunity to react to Chicago PMI figures for September and Dallas Fed manufacturing index data. The major market moving event this week could be Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

At 06:55 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2974.25, up 10.50 or +0.36%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2046.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend changes to up on a move through 3025.75.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 2046.25 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. A move through 2995.00 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is 3025.75 to 2046.25. Its 50% level or pivot at 2986.00 is the first upside target. The price action the last three days suggests this level is controlling the direction of the market.

The main range is 2811.00 to 3025.75. Its retracement zone at 2918.25 to 2893.00 is the primary downside target. Even though the main trend is down, buyers could come in on a test of this area because it represents value.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2974.25, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 2986.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2986.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into last week’s low at 2046.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the main retracement zone at 2918.25 to 2893.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move over 2986.00 will signal the presence of buyers. The first target is the minor top at 2995.00. Taking out this level could drive the index into additional minor tops at 3012.25 and 3024.50. A pair of main tops come in at 3025.75 and 3032.75.

Overview

Depending on the size of the buying volume, any rally through 2986.00 could be labored because of the series of minor tops, or a spike to the upside if the volume is strong.