E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – September 28, 2017 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower early in the session on Thursday. There has been no follow-through to the upside following yesterday’s sharp rise and the index has fallen back below the previous top at 2507.25. This tends to indicate that the breakout over this level was fueled by buy stops and short-covering rather than new buying.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up just two days after it changed to down. This is a highly unusual whip-saw pattern that is seldom seen in the stock indices.

It could be an indication of investor indecision or thin trading conditions. Typically, this type of move is news driven.

A trade through 2509.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 2485.00 will change the main trend to down once again.

The short-term range is 2485.00 to 2509.25. Its 50% level or pivot is 2497.00. This price is essentially controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The main range is 2419.25 to 2509.25. Its retracement zone is 2464.25 to 2453.50.

Daily Forecast

Based on the current price 2503.50 (0836 GMT) and the earlier price action, the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a long-term uptrending angle at 2503.25.

A sustained move over 2503.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to trigger a rally into yesterday’s high at 2509.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

A sustained move under 2503.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into a support cluster at 2497.00. Since the main trend is up, we’re likely to see buyers on the first test of this price cluster.

If 2497.00 fails to hold as support then look for the market to move lower with the main bottom at 2485.00 the next objective. The trend will change to down if this bottom fails to hold.