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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Testing Retracement Zone at 4215.50 – 4351.50

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Aug 11, 2022, 16:00 UTC

Trader reaction to the main 50% level at 4215.50 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 into the close on Thursday.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

In this article:

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the mid-session on Thursday but well off its highs for the session. The price action suggests investors are lightening up on the long side following a two-day spurt tied to reports showing inflation may be peaking and lower expectations of an aggressive Fed rate hike in September.

At 05:32 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4232.00, up 22.00 or +0.52%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $422.28, up $2.29 or 0.55%.

Earlier in the session, the benchmark index surged to its highest level in more than three months on Thursday, extending a rally from the previous session as fresh evidence of cooling inflation further cemented hopes of a smaller rise in interest rates.

Growth and technology stocks rebounded after data showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in July bolstering the chance of a 50-basis point hike by the Federal Reserve in September instead of 75 basis points, Reuters reported.

Ten of the 11 major S&P 500 indexes advanced, with financials and communication services adding more than 1%, while energy stocks tracked gains in crude prices.

In other news, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose for the second straight week, indicating further softening in the labor market despite tight conditions.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4260.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A move through 3723.75 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but the index is ripe for a possible closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4113.00 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 4792.00 to 3639.00. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 4215.50 to 4351.50. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the main 50% level at 4215.50 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4215.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 4260.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a near-term surge into the April 28 main top at 4308.50, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 4351.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4215.50 will signal the presence of sellers. A trade through 4210.00 will turn the index lower for the session, putting it in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

Side Notes

A close under 4210.00 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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