E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 4425.75 Sets Tone into Close

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat after giving up earlier gains. Before sellers arrived, the market was trading at another record high.

The benchmark index was supported on the opening by news that a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill was set to pass the Senate, and a rise in bank and energy stocks. Meanwhile, investors continued to shrug off rising COVID cases from the delta variant.

At 14:47 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4427.00, up 1.25 or +0.03%.

Bank stocks rose amid the jump in bond yields. Goldman Sachs jumped nearly 2%. Wells Fargo and Bank of America rose more than 1.5% each.

In the energy sector, Exxon Mobil and Chevron popped more than 1% on Tuesday and Diamondback Energy rebounded more than 2% as U.S. oil prices rose 1.6%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4438.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4424.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4412.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4364.75 to 4438.25. Its 50% level at 4401.50 is potential support.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4438.25. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the break to extend into its retracement zone at 4331.00 to 4305.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4425.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4425.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 4438.25. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside if the buying volume is strong enough.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4425.75 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 4412.25 will change the minor trend to down with 4401.50 the next target.

Buyers could come in on the first test of 4401.50, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the next minor bottom at 4364.75.

Side Notes

A close under 4425.75 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top on the daily chart. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.