E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trying to Establish Support at 3246.25

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher on Monday after Wall Street recorded its steepest weekly loss since March as investors geared up for an event-packed week starting with the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.

Investors anticipate short-term trading turmoil and major long-term policy shifts related to taxes, government spending, trade and regulation depending on whether President Donald Trump or his Democratic challenger Joe Biden wins the White House race.

At 14:18 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3299.75, up 35.00 or +1.07%.

Biden is ahead in national opinion polls, but races are tight in battle ground states that could tip the election to Trump. Analysts said the outcome most likely to shake markets in the near term would be no immediate outcome at all on Tuesday night.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest main bottom at 3198.00.

The main trend will change to up on a move through the nearest swing top at 3541.00. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, today’s session begins with the index inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The minor range is also down. A trade through 3462.50 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 2916.50 to 3576.25. Its retracement zone at 3246.25 to 3168.50 is potential support. Last week, this zone stopped the selling at 3225.00.

The new minor range is 3541.00 to 3225.00. If the rally continues then its retracement zone at 3383.00 to 3420.25 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action indicates that the direction of the index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 3246.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3246.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor retracement zone at 3383.00 to 3420.25.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to hold 3246.25 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the minor bottom at 3225.00, followed by the main top at 3198.00 and the main Fibonacci level at 3168.50.

The Fib level at 3168.50 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the June 15 main bottom at 2916.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.