E-mini S&P Sellers have Clear Shot at 4354.00

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures opened lower on Thursday as escalating tensions between the West and Russia surrounding Ukraine encouraged nervous investors to trim risky positions. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but remained at levels associated with tightening labor market conditions.

At 15:04 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4413.50, down 56.50 or -1.26%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $440.86, down $5.74 or -1.28%.

Ongoing tension at the Russian-Ukraine border is rattling investors early Thursday after Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said, “The evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.”

On the economic front, weekly jobless claims numbers came in at 248,000, rising from the previous week and above the 218,000 expected, according to a Dow Jones estimate. Housing permits for January showed a surprise increase, but housing starts lagged expectations.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4354.00 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 4586.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 4484.50 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the downside.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4419.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4419.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next targets a main bottom at 4354.00, followed by a retracement zone at 4327.50 – 4266.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4419.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into 4470.00.

Overtaking the minor top at 4484.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with 4510.50 the next target. Overcoming this level could trigger an acceleration into 4580.75 – 4586.00.