E-mini S&P Setting Up for Plunge into 4137.50 – 4129.00

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading at their low of the session on Wednesday as Ukraine declared emergency amid a sweeping cyberattack on its state websites in fast-changing developments that raised fears of an all-out war with Russia. After opening higher, five of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors fell in volatile trading.

At 19:13 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 4258.50, down $41.50 or -0.97%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is trading $425.72, down $3.85 or -0.90%.

In the latest signs of a likely Russian military onslaught, Ukraine declared emergency and told its citizens in Russia to flee, while Moscow began evacuating its Kyiv embassy. Meanwhile, the websites of Ukraine’s government, foreign ministry and state security service remained inaccessible in what the government said was the start of another massive denial of service attack that began at around 1400 GMT.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Taking out 4212.75 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 4484.50 will change the main trend to up.

The resistance is a retracement zone at 4327.75 to 4419.50.

The potential support is a long-term retracement zone at 4266.00 to 4137.50.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to 4300.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4300.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is the long-term 50% level at 4266.00.

A trade through 4266.00 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the main bottom at 4212.75.

Taking out 4212.75 could trigger an acceleration into the support cluster at 4137.50 to 4129.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4300.00 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a quick rally into 4327.75. Overtaking this level could extend the short-covering rally into 4419.50.