E-mini S&P Traders Eyeing 4320.25 for Intraday Reversal Up

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are down shortly after the cash market opening on Tuesday amid nervousness about tensions between Russia and the West and the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy soon.

At 15:03 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4285.00, down 118.75 or -2.70%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is trading $427.92, down $11.92 or -2.71%.

A build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border has triggered fears in the West that Russia will invade. NATO said on Monday it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing Eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting later today. It is expected to give guidance about the trajectory of monetary policy tightening, with investors expecting the first post-pandemic U.S. rate hike in March.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4739.50 will change the main trend to up.

On Monday, the index formed a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. A trade through 4427.50 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

A trade through 4212.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

On the downside, the nearest support is a 50% level at 4266.00, followed by a Fibonacci level at 4137.50.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is lined up at 4327.75 to 4419.50. The best resistance is a cluster of levels at 4476.25, 4510.50, 4538.25 and 4580.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4320.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4320.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 4266.00. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into a support cluster at 4215.00 – 4212.75.

A failure to hold 4212.75 could trigger a further break into another support cluster at 4137.50 – 4129.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4320.25 will signal the presence of buyers. Overtaking 4327.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 4419.50 the next major target.

Taking out 4427.50 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. This could fuel the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally with potential targets coming in at 4476.25, 4510.50, 4538.25 and 4580.75.