E-mini S&P Weakens Under 4419.25, Strenthens Over 4470.00

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the mid-session and before the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting. The price action is being driven largely by concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve’s plan to hike interest rates.

At 18:26 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4434.50, down 30.00 or -0.67%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is trading $442.72, down $3.38 or -0.76%.

ViacomCBS was the biggest loser in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, with shares falling more than 21% after the company said it is rebranding itself as Paramount Global to focus on streaming. The company also reported lower-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4354.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 4586.00 will change the main trend to up.

On the downside, the index is trading slightly above a series of retracement levels at 4419.25, 4327.50 and 4266.00.

On the upside, resistance is a minor 50% level at 4470.00, followed by a short-term retracement zone at 4510.50 to 4580.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4419.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4419.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 4354.00, followed by a Fibonacci level at 4327.50.

If 4327.50 fails as support then look for a move into a 50% level at 4266.00. This is the last potential support level before the 4212.75 main bottom.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4419.50 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a retest of 4470.00. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with 4510.50 the next target.

Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of 4510.50. Overcoming this level could trigger an acceleration into the resistance cluster at 4580.75 to 4586.00.