Earnings to Watch Next Week: Carnival, RPM, Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots Alliance in FocusFollowing is a list of company earnings scheduled for release January 4-8, along with earnings previews for select companies. Next week’s earnings are probably not much significant for major market movements, but it is adequate to gauge investors’ sentiment.
75% of retail CFD investors lose money
Carnival, the world’s largest cruise ship operator, is expected to report a loss for the third consecutive time in the fourth quarter. The Miami, Florida-based company’s revenue will plunge nearly 100% to $142.09 million from $4.78 billion posted in the same period a year ago. Carnival is expected to report a loss of $1.84 per share, worse compared to a profit of 62 cents per share registered in the same quarter last year.
“We think the cruise industry will be one of the slowest sub-sectors to recover from the COVID-19. Cruising needs just not international travel to return, but ports to reopen, authorities to permit cruising, and the return of customer confidence,” said Jamie Rollo, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“We expect cruising to resume in January 2021, and only expect FY19 EBITDA to return in FY24 given historically CCL has lacked pricing power, and EPS to take even longer given dilution of share issues and higher interest expense. We see debt doubling in FY21 vs FY19 due to operating losses and high capex commitments, and leverage looks high at 4-5x even in FY23-24e, so we see risk more equity might need to be raised,” Rollo added.
According to the mean Refinitiv estimate from eleven analysts, Carnival Corp is expected to show a decrease in its fourth-quarter earnings to -186 cents per share. Wall Street expects results to range from a loss of $-2.10 to a loss of $-1.64 per share, Reuters reported.
Tuesday (January 5)
No major earnings scheduled for release.
Wednesday (January 6)
IN THE SPOTLIGHT: RPM INTERNATIONAL
RPM International, manufacturer of specialty chemical product lines, including high-quality specialty paints, protective coatings, roofing systems, sealants, and adhesives, is expected to report a profit of $1.0 in the fiscal second quarter of 2021, up from $0.76 reported in the same quarter last year.
The specialty chemicals company’s revenue could grow more than 4% year-on-year to $1.46 billion.
“Nearly 1/3 of sales are related to U.S. housing and home improvement (the second highest in the industry behind Sherwin-Williams). This continues to be our preferred coatings end market as it benefits from COVID-19 driven home improvement demand, which we think is sustainable. Importantly, RPM has no meaningful auto, aerospace exposure, but does have US infrastructure/construction exposure which could benefit from stimulus policy,” noted Vincent Andrews, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“RPM’s MAP self-help program offers an offset to COVID-19 challenges. Meaningful opportunity remains for improvement in margins, free cash flow conversion, and return of capital to shareholders. Management highlighted upside to MAP targets on the recent conference call,” Andrews added.
|MSM||MSC Industrial Direct||$1.08|
Thursday (January 7)
IN THE SPOTLIGHT: CONSTELLATION BRANDS, WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE
CONSTELLATION BRANDS: New York-based Fortune 500 international beverage alcohol company is expected to report a profit of $2.40 in fiscal third quarter, up from $2.14 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago, which would indicate a positive year-over-year growth rate of more than 12%.
The leading beverage alcohol company’s revenue could grow more than 12% year-on-year to $2.26 billion.
“We believe the focus of Constellation Brands’ FQ3 EPS will be on accelerating and above consensus beer depletions to +8.3% y-o-y in FQ3 (vs. 5% in F1H21) with improving beer out-of-stocks, as well as a beer shipment recovery after the under-shipment in F1H21. We also expect an update on beer depletion trends in December, with solid U.S. scanner data trends but likely weakening on-premise trends with more on-premise restrictions, particularly in California (about a quarter of Constellation Brands’ volumes),” said Dara Mohsenian, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“Additionally, we believe investors will focus on beer margins, which we believe could surprise to the upside in FQ3 (we are 20 bps above consensus on beer margins and 2.3% above consensus on beer profit) and in F2H21, with Constellation Brands full year FY21 guidance of flat beer margins implying -160 bps of y-o-y margin declines in H2, with our estimates above guidance at -20 bps y-o-y,” Mohsenian added.
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE: The largest U.S. drugstore chain is expected to report a profit of $1.03 in fiscal first quarter ended November 2020, representing a year-over-year plunge of -25.6%. The retail pharmacy provider’s revenue could grow about 2% year-on-year to $34.93 billion.
“When Walgreens provided 2021 guidance back on October 15th, management didn’t include any negative impact from additional lockdown measures in Europe or changes to utilization patterns in the US including higher demand for flu vaccines in 1Q but softer demand for cough, cold, and flu products. To reflect how the environment has changed, we have updated our estimates. For 1Q, we now model EPS of $0.98 from $1.14 prior and versus consensus’ $1.03 (range $0.97 – $1.08). Our changes are primarily driven by our estimate of international retail segment sales down -20% y/y and -4.5% sequentially,” said Ricky Goldwasser, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“While we are lowering our 2021 estimate to $4.55 from $4.70, our numbers include only the additional hiring of pharmacy technicians throughout the year but not the benefit associated with administrating the vaccines to the general populations. We think the benefit could be as high as a $1.00 – $1.40 split between 2HF21 and 1HF22. In comparison, the consensus is $4.82 and guidance of low single-digit y/y growth implies a $4.78 to $4.87 range.”
|WBA||Walgreens Boots Alliance||$1.03|
|HELE||Helen Of Troy||$3.01|
|BBBY||Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.||$0.17|
|DCT||DCT Industrial Trust||-$0.01|
Friday (January 8)
No major earnings scheduled for release.