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ETH Bears Continue to Target Sub-$1,800 on Staking Stats and the Fed

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Jul 9, 2023, 04:43 UTC

ETH found modest support this morning. However, after a bearish Saturday and bearish technical indicators, sub-$1,800 remains the target.

ETH/USD - Tech Analysis - FX Empire.

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • ETH joined the broader market in the red on Saturday, falling 0.27% to end the day at $1,866.
  • Staking statistics and the crypto news wires left ETH on the back foot.
  • The technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to $1,800.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.27% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 1.24% gain from Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,866. The bearish session left ETH short of the $1,900 handle for the second time in eight sessions.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was up 0.13% to $$1,869. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,864 before rising to a high of $1,875.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH/USD remained below the lower level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band for the second consecutive session on Saturday.

However, ETH/USD currently sits above the 50-day ($1,851) and 200-day ($1,756) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and long term.

Notably, the 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 50.52 reading signaled a bullish outlook and aligned with the 50-day EMA, supporting a run at the lower level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band.

ETH Daily Chart sends bullish signals.
ETHUSD 090723 Daily Chart

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at the $1,900 psychological level. ETH/USD sits below the 50-day EMA ($1,890) but above the 200-day EMA ($1,860), sending bearish near-term and bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, signaling a likely return to sub-$1,800 to bring the $1,665 – $1,625 support band into view.

ETH/USD should move through the 50-day EMA ($1,890) and the lower level of the resistance band to support a breakout from $1,930.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 43.97 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the bearish RSI aligns with the EMAs and supports a return to sub-$1,800.

4-Hourly Chart is bearish.
ETHUSD 090723 4 Hourly Chart

Spike in Pending Withdrawals Delivered a Bearish Signal

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows decreased from 65,536 ETH on Friday to 23,968 on Saturday. Staking inflows remained below the all-important 100,000 threshold and at the lower end of recent staking inflow levels.

Staking inflows slide.
Staking Inflows 090723

The overnight withdrawal profile was relatively bearish, with principal withdrawals rising to above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bullish. Projections show withdrawal levels will sit at normal levels throughout the morning.

On Saturday, the net staking balance stood at a 41,070 ETH surplus, +30.24% over 24 hours, equivalent to a positive balance of $76.45 million. Deposits totaled 65,840 versus withdrawals of 24,770 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 71,930 ETH, equivalent to approximately $134.52 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.61%, unchanged over 24 hours. However, the downward trend in the staking APR and the spike in pending withdrawals are price negative.

Withdrawal profile turned bullish.
Withdrawal Profile 090723

Tron Founder Justin Sun Ethereum Movement Weighed

It was a quiet Saturday, with no US economic indicators or crypto events to move the dial. Staking statistics and the downward trend in the Staking APR were crypto-negative, supporting the modest pullback.

News of Tron (TRX) Founder Justin Sun moving $43 million in ETH equivalent was also bearish. According to Lookonchain, Sun transferred 23,000 ETH to Poloniex. Sun has transferred 67,500 ETH ($126 million) to Poloniex in 7 transactions over the last 12 months.

The Tron founder has also been actively staking and unstaking ETH before and after the Shapella upgrade. Among recent transactions, Sun staked 150,100 ETH on Lido (LDO) in February ahead of the Shapella upgrade and unstaked $29.7 million in ETH equivalent in June.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Sunday, with no US economic indicators to draw interest.

With no external market forces to consider, investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires for price-moving events. Staking statistics, crypto-ETF-related chatter, and SEC v Ripple-linked news would influence investor sentiment.

However, with Binance and Coinbase in the SEC’s spotlight, investors should also consider Binance, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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