ETH Bears Eye Sub-$1,800 on Staking Stats and Profit Taking

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, ETH joined the broader market in the green, gaining 1.23% to end the day at $1,899.
• It was a quiet Sunday, with investors brushing aside ETH staking statistics in the hope of an influx of institutional investors that could benefit ETH.
• The technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $2,000.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 1.23% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.95% loss from Saturday, ETH ended the week up 10.35% to $1,899. Significantly, ETH avoided sub-$1,800 for the third consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to a first-hour low of $1,871. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,859, ETH rose to a mid-morning high of $1,930. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,900 and briefly through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,924 before falling back to sub-$1,900.

Justin Sun Unstaked $30 Million in ETH

It was a relatively quiet Sunday, with no Ethereum network-related news to move the dial. The lack of network chatter left staking statistics and commentary in focus.

Over the weekend, news hit the wires of Tron (TRX) founder Justin Sun unstaking $29.7 million in ETH from the Lido (LDO) Finance Liquid Staking platform. Sun reportedly sent the tokens to Huobi.

Sun staked 150,100 ETH on Lido in February, sending staking inflows to 198,560 ETH on February 25. ETH responded to the news, gaining 2.94% on Sunday, February 26.

Staking Statistics Signal Bearish Sentiment

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 34,880 ETH on Saturday to 44,352 on Sunday. Despite the upswing, staking inflows remained well below the 100,000 inflow threshold.

The total value staked climbed at a less marked pace, with a net staking deficit a drag.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were bullish. Projections show principal withdrawals will fall back to normal levels.

On Saturday, the net staking balance stood at a 6,760 ETH deficit (+36.90% over 24 hours), equivalent to a $12.75 million deficit. Deposits totaled zero versus withdrawals of 6,760 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 37,040 ETH, equivalent to approximately $69.49 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.86%, unchanged over 24 hours. The downward trend in staking APR remains ETH price negative.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Monday session, with no US economic indicators to impact investor sentiment this afternoon. While Fed chatter will draw interest, the crypto news wires will likely remain the focal point.

ETF-related chatter and SEC v Ripple case-related news will move the dial. However, investors should also track SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase (COIN) news updates. The world’s largest exchange faces intense scrutiny, which will test investor sentiment over the near term.

However, Binance has successfully navigated the storm until now. There has been no whisper of a liquidity crisis, which has limited the damage.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 1.31% to $1,874. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,905 before falling to a low of $1,867.

ETH Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,844. The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA crossing through the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1,844) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,929) to target R2 ($1,959) and $2,000. However, a fall through S1 ($1,870) would bring the 50-day EMA ($1,844) and S2 ($1,841) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send bearish signals.

Resistance & Support Level