ETH Bulls Target $1,250 on a Decoupling from the NASDAQ Index

Key Insights:

• On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) saw red for a second consecutive session.
• Fed fear and investor jitters over the prospects of a hard landing sent the NASDAQ Index and the crypto market into the red.
• Market conditions improved this morning, with a BoJ policy adjustment supporting the broader crypto market at the expense of the major indexes.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.27% on Monday. Following a 0.34% decline on Sunday, ETH ended the day at $1,168. ETH ended the day at sub-$1,200 for the fourth time since November 28.

A bullish morning saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,195. Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,196, ETH slid to a late low of $1,150. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,171 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,159. However, finding late support, ETH moved back through S2 to end the day at $1,168.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.84%. Following a 0.23% loss on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $16,447. Notably, BTC fell short of $17,000 for the Third time since November 29 while avoiding sub-$16,000.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $16,825. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,859, BTC slid to a late low of $16,261. BTC fell through the Major Support Levels before moving back through the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $16,380 to end the day at $16,447.

Recession Fears Send BTC and ETH into the Red before a Morning Rebound

A quiet Monday session left BTC and ETH in the hands of the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ Index.

Hawkish Fed chatter and fears of a hard landing weighed on riskier assets at the start of the week. The NASDAQ Index fell by 1.49%, dragging BTC and ETH into the deep red.

However, dib buyers jumped in this morning to deliver much-needed support. BTC and ETH reversed the Monday losses despite the NASDAQ mini sliding by 123.5 points.

The Bank of Japan’s announcement to change its target range for 10-year yields to 50 basis points sank the Asian equity markets and the NASDAQ mini. Previously, the 10-year yield range stood at a 25-basis point band from its 0% target.

Today, there are no US economic indicators to influence BTC and ETH. The lack of material stats will likely leave BTC and ETH in the hands of the crypto news wires and the NASDAQ Index later in the session.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 3.65% to $1,210. A bullish morning saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,163 to a high of $1,216. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,192 to test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,216.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to hold above R1 and the $1,171 pivot to retarget the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,216. A return to $1,216 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires and the NASDAQ Index need to deliver support for a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely take a run at $1,250 and the Third Major Resistance level (R3) at $1,261.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,147 into play. However, barring another event-driven sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,140 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,126. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,081.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,221. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R2 ($1,216) and the 50-day EMA ($1,221) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($1,237). A breakout from the 100-day EMA would bring $1,250 and the 200-day EMA ($1,256) into view. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,221) would leave ETH under pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up by 2.23% to $16,814. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early low of $16,413 to a high of $16,890.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,761.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid R1 and the $16,511 pivot to target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,075. A BTC return to $17,000 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires and the NASDAQ Index will need to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would test resistance at $17,500 and the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $17,639.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,197 into play. Barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $15,947. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,383.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, BTC sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,973. After Sunday’s bearish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($16,973) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($17,031) and R2 ($17,075) to target $17,500. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave BTC under pressure.