ETH Bulls to Target $1,900 on Ethereum Futures ETF Speculation

Key Insights:

• ETH joined the broader market in the red for a third session on Friday, falling 0.44% to end the day at $1,828.
• Uncertainty over SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple case remained a headwind.
• The shorter-term technical indicators are bearish, signaling a fall to sub-$1,800.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.44% on Friday. Following a 0.22% loss on Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,828. The bearish session left ETH at sub-$1,850 for the third consecutive session.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.06% to $1,837. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,832 before falling to a low of $1,826.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH sat below the 50-day EMA ($1,866) while holding above the 200-day ($1,785), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish price signal.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 41.18 reading reflects bearish sentiment, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA ($1,785). However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,866) would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850. ETH sits above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH remained below the 50-day ($1,850) and 200-day ($1,869) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

An ETH move through the 50-day and 200-day EMAs would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 support band to target $1,950. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the $1,815 – $1,795 support band in play.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 40.72 sends bearish price signals, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band.

ETH and the Broader Market Struggle with Scrutiny of the Torres Ruling

There were no Ethereum network-related events to provide direction on Friday. The lack of network updates left ETH in the hands of the broader crypto market.

Investor sentiment toward the Judge Rakoff comments on the SEC v Ripple Court ruling weighed on buyer appetite. This week, Judge Rakoff questioned the Judge Torres Court ruling, raising bets on an SEC appeal.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler included ETH in the ‘Security basket’ this year, leaving ETH price sensitive to SEC scrutiny of the digital asset space.

Uncertainty toward SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling and the future of the spot BTC ETH market remain headwinds. Significantly, investors expect ETH ETFs to be the next focal point after the launch of BTC ETFs.

A delay in launching a comprehensive ETF market would likely limit institutional money inflows near-term.

On Friday, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart put the odds of an ETH futures ETF approval at 75%. Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, both Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analysts, had this to say,

The odds of Ethereum futures ETFs hitting US exchanges this year have risen dramatically to 75%, in our view, after a spurt of 12 applications to the SEC in recent days. The SEC appears to be changing its posture toward crypto, based on reports of its back-channel messaging to ETF issuers. Also, we believe the SEC would have a hard time in court defending the denial of Ethereum futures ETFs after approving standard and leveraged Bitcoin futures ETFs.”

SEC approvals of one, some, or all of the spot BTC ETFs would fuel bets on spot ETH ETFs.

Staking Statistics Continue to Send Bearish Price Signals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 23,232 ETH on Thursday to 44,512 on Friday. Despite the increase, staking inflows remained below recent highs, sending a bearish price signal.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with ETH principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bullish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will remain at below-normal withdrawal levels.

On Thursday, the net staking balance stood at an 8,240 surplus ($15.16 million), down 63% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 24,340 versus withdrawals of 16,090.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 27,410 ETH, equivalent to approximately $50.16 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.76%, unchanged over 24 hours. While the staking APR upward trend is bullish, the fall in the net staking balance and subdued staking inflows are bearish.