The Week Ahead: Markets Eye CPI and Bank Earnings in Critical Test This Week

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended last week near record highs, with the S&P 500 and Dow buoyed by strength in energy and industrials despite renewed tariff concerns. Investors continue to price in resilient economic fundamentals, but policy uncertainty has re-emerged as a key risk.

President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs on over 20 countries, set to take effect August 1, have introduced stagflation fears.

This week’s central focus is inflation, with CPI and PPI releases poised to test market expectations for Fed policy.

Major bank earnings will also anchor attention, offering critical insight into financial sector health and capital markets trends.

Key Events by Day

Monday (July 14):
• Before Open – Fastenal (FAST) – Est. $0.28 EPS
• No major U.S. economic releases scheduled
• After Close – FB Financial (FBK) – Est. $0.88 EPS
• After Close – Simulations Plus (SLP) – Est. $0.22 EPS

Tuesday (July 15):
• Before Open – JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Est. $4.85 EPS
• Before Open – Citigroup (C) – Est. $1.63 EPS
• Before Open – Wells Fargo (WFC) – Est. $1.40 EPS
• Before Open – Albertsons (ACI) – Est. $0.53 EPS
• Before Open – AngioDynamics (ANGO) – Est. –$0.12 EPS
• Before Open – BlackRock (BLK) – Est. $10.70 EPS
• Before Open – BNY Mellon (BK) – Est. $1.75 EPS
• Before Open – Ericsson (ERIC) – Est. $0.12 EPS
• Before Open – State Street (STT) – Est. $2.35 EPS
• 12:30 GMT – Core CPI m/m: Est. +0.3% (Prev. +0.1%)
• 12:30 GMT – CPI m/m: Est. +0.3% (Prev. +0.1%)
• 12:30 GMT – CPI y/y: Est. +2.6% (Prev. +2.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 13:15 GMT – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 16:00 GMT – FOMC Member Barr Speaks
• 17:00 GMT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
• 18:45 GMT – FOMC Member Collins Speaks
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
• 23:45 GMT – FOMC Member Logan Speaks
• After Close – Fulton Financial (FULT) – Est. $0.42 EPS
• After Close – Hancock Whitney (HWC) – Est. $1.36 EPS
• After Close – J.B. Hunt (JBHT) – Est. $1.31 EPS
• After Close – Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) – Est. $1.90 EPS

Wednesday (July 16):
• Before Open – ASML (ASML) – Est. $6.06 EPS
• Before Open – Bank of America (BAC) – Est. $0.87 EPS
• Before Open – Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) – Est. $1.03 EPS
• Before Open – First Horizon (FHN) – Est. $0.42 EPS
• Before Open – Goldman Sachs (GS) – Est. $9.62 EPS
• Before Open – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Est. $2.68 EPS
• Before Open – M&T Bank (MTB) – Est. $3.98 EPS
• Before Open – Morgan Stanley (MS) – Est. $1.97 EPS
• Before Open – PNC Financial (PNC) – Est. $3.55 EPS
• Before Open – Progressive (PGR) – Est. $4.34 EPS
• Before Open – Prologis (PLD) – Est. $1.42 EPS
• 12:30 GMT – Core PPI m/m: Est. +0.2% (Prev. +0.1%)
• 12:30 GMT – PPI m/m: Est. +0.1% (Prev. +0.1%)
• 13:15 GMT – Capacity Utilization Rate
• 13:15 GMT – FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
• 13:30 GMT – Industrial Production m/m
• 14:00 GMT – FOMC Member Barr Speaks
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories
• 18:00 GMT – Beige Book
• 22:30 GMT – FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• After Close – AAR Corp (AIR) – Est. $1.00 EPS
• After Close – Alcoa (AA) – Est. $0.33 EPS
• After Close – First Industrial Realty (FR) – Est. $0.73 EPS
• After Close – Home Bancshares (HOMB) – Est. $0.57 EPS
• After Close – Rexford Industrial (REXR) – Est. $0.58 EPS
• After Close – SL Green Realty (SLG) – Est. $1.40 EPS
• After Close – Synovus (SNV) – Est. $1.25 EPS
• After Close – Triumph Financial (TFIN) – Est. $0.07 EPS
• After Close – United Airlines (UAL) – Est. $3.85 EPS

Thursday (July 17):
• Before Open – Abbott Labs (ABT) – Est. $1.25 EPS
• Before Open – Cintas (CTAS) – Est. $1.07 EPS
• Before Open – Citizens Financial (CFG) – Est. $0.88 EPS
• Before Open – Elevance Health (ELV) – Est. $9.16 EPS
• Before Open – Fifth Third (FITB) – Est. $0.87 EPS
• Before Open – Forestar Group (FOR) – Est. $0.76 EPS
• Before Open – GE Aerospace (GE) – Est. $1.40 EPS
• Before Open – Insteel Industries (IIIN) – Est. $0.69 EPS
• Before Open – ManpowerGroup (MAN) – Est. $0.68 EPS
• Before Open – Marsh & McLennan (MMC) – Est. $2.68 EPS
• Before Open – OFG Bancorp (OFG) – Est. $1.05 EPS
• Before Open – PepsiCo (PEP) – Est. $2.03 EPS
• Before Open – Snap-On (SNA) – Est. $4.63 EPS
• Before Open – Texas Capital (TCBI) – Est. $1.28 EPS
• Before Open – Travelers (TRV) – Est. $3.49 EPS
• Before Open – U.S. Bancorp (USB) – Est. $1.07 EPS
• Before Open – Webster Financial (WBS) – Est. $1.43 EPS
• 12:30 GMT – Core Retail Sales m/m: Est. +0.3% (Prev. –0.3%)
• 12:30 GMT – Retail Sales m/m: Est. +0.2% (Prev. –0.9%)
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims: Est. 234K (Prev. 227K)
• 12:30 GMT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 12:30 GMT – Import Prices m/m
• 14:00 GMT – Business Inventories m/m
• 14:00 GMT – FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
• 14:00 GMT – NAHB Housing Market Index
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage
• All day – G20 Meetings
• 16:45 GMT – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
• 17:30 GMT – FOMC Member Cook Speaks
• 20:00 GMT – TIC Long-Term Purchases
• 23:00 GMT – FOMC Member Waller Speaks
• After Close – Netflix (NFLX) – Est. $7.18 EPS on $11.16B revenue
• After Close – Bank OZK (OZK) – Est. $1.53 EPS
• After Close – F.N.B. Corp (FNB) – Est. $0.34 EPS
• After Close – Interactive Brokers (IBKR) – Est. $0.46 EPS
• After Close – Simmons First National (SFNC) – Est. $0.39 EPS
• After Close – Western Alliance (WAL) – Est. $2.03 EPS

Friday (July 18):
• Before Open – 3M (MMM) – Est. $2.01 EPS
• Before Open – Ally Financial (ALLY) – Est. $0.80 EPS
• Before Open – American Express (AXP) – Est. $3.87 EPS
• Before Open – Autoliv (ALV) – Est. $2.02 EPS
• Before Open – Charles Schwab (SCHW) – Est. $1.08 EPS
• Before Open – Comerica (CMA) – Est. $1.26 EPS
• Before Open – Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) – Est. $0.33 EPS
• Before Open – Regions Financial (RF) – Est. $0.56 EPS
• Before Open – SLB (SLB) – Est. $0.74 EPS
• Before Open – Truist (TFC) – Est. $0.92 EPS
• 12:30 GMT – Building Permits – Est. 1.39M, Previous 1.39M
• 12:30 GMT – Housing Starts – Est. 1.29M, Previous 1.26M
• 14:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – Est. 61.4, Previous 60.7
• 14:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations – Previous 5.0%
• All day – G20 Meetings

Central Bank Activity

Ten Fed speakers are scheduled this week, including Bowman, Barr, Barkin, Collins, Logan, Hammack, Williams, Kugler, Daly, Cook, and Waller. Markets will also absorb the Beige Book on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT for updated regional insight.

Commentary post-CPI and PPI will be critical in determining whether tariff-induced inflation pressures are changing the timing or magnitude of expected rate cuts later in 2025.

Technical Outlook

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 44,371.52, down –1.02%. Key resistance remains at the December 2024 high of 45,073.63. Initial support is at 41,981.14, with the 52-week simple moving average (SMA) rising to 42,334.59. A weekly close above 45,073 would mark a breakout and clear the way for continuation higher. Failure to hold 42,300 could shift focus to the 41,000 zone.

The Nasdaq Composite ended at 20,585.53, essentially flat on the week (–0.08%), holding just below recent record highs. The 52-week SMA sits at 18,558.45, with near-term support at the June breakout level of 19,334.98. Momentum remains bullish with no major reversal patterns present. A decisive push above 20,800 would confirm continuation.

The S&P 500 settled at 6,259.75, down –0.31% for the week. Price is holding above key breakout support at 5,943.23, with the rising 52-week SMA now at 5,796.96. A clean break above recent highs would extend the bullish trend, while a move below 5,943 could signal a retest of the 5,800 area.

The weekly structure across all three indexes remains bullish, with price above rising long-term moving averages and recent breakout levels holding as support.

Outlook

This week delivers a direct test of the market’s inflation assumptions and earnings resilience. June CPI and PPI will show whether tariffs are beginning to flow through to consumer prices, with implications for the Fed’s policy path.

Bank earnings will offer a look at capital markets activity, credit trends, and the extent to which dividend and buyback plans are expanding.

Netflix, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are among names expected to outperform.

With policy risk rising and valuations extended, any earnings or macro disappointment could spark sharp repricing.

Traders should be prepared for elevated volatility driven by inflation data and financial sector results.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.