ETH Faces Risk of Sub-$1,800 Despite Bullish Staking Statistics

Key Insights:

• On Monday, ETH joined the broader market in the red, falling by 1.07% to end the day at $1,842.
• US economic indicators and Fed Fear weighed on the crypto market, while a jump in principal withdrawals contributed to the pullback.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$1,750.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.07%. Following a 0.69% loss on Sunday, ETH ended the day at $1,842. Significantly, ETH fell short of the $1,900 handle for the third consecutive session and the third time since April 9.

A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise to an early morning high of $1,890. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,884 before sliding to a late afternoon low of $1,805. ETH briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,838 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,815 before ending the day at $1,842.

Staking Statistics and Withdrawal Profile Send Bullish Signals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows jumped from 40,800 ETH on Sunday to 123,584 on Monday, the highest since February 2023.

Total value staked continued to move upward, with the latest ETH staking inflow statistics being price bullish. However, the investors should monitor movements throughout the session.

With the staking statistics delivering ETH price support, the withdrawal profiles were also price positive.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 0.615 million ETH, equivalent to approximately $1.13 billion. Significantly, the withdrawal profile turned bullish for the day ahead, with projections pointing to negligible principal ETH withdrawals.

An upward trend in ETH staking inflows and a downward trend in principal withdrawals would be bullish.

During the afternoon session, US economic indicators and market sentiment toward Fed monetary policy contributed to the bearish mood.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index fell from -15.7 to -23.4 in April, while the Chicago Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at -0.19. While the economic indicators were disappointing, investor sentiment toward Fed monetary policy turned more hawkish.

According to the CME FedWatchTool, the probability of a 25-basis point May interest rate hike rose from 89.1% to 98.9% on Monday. Significantly, the chances of a June hike climbed from 23.4% to 24.7%.

The NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 0.29%, with the NASDAQ mini down 52.25 points this morning.

The Day Ahead

ETH staking statistics and withdrawal profile actuals and projections will continue to influence. A decline in ETH staking inflows and a rise in principal withdrawals would send bearish signals.

Looking beyond the staking statistics, US economic indicators and corporate earnings will move the dial.

On the economic calendar, US consumer confidence figures for April will influence. A CB Consumer Confidence fall from 104.2 to sub-100 would weigh on riskier assets.

However, the US earnings calendar will also draw interest. Big names on the US earnings calendar include Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Visa Inc. (V), McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), General Motors Co. (GM), and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP).

SEC v Ripple case updates and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need monitoring.

Ethereum Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 0.94% to $1,825. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,851 before falling to a low of $1,822.

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

ETH needs to move through the $1,846 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,886 and the Monday high of $1,890. A move through the morning high of $1,851 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics, US stats, and corporate earnings must support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,931 and resistance at $1,950. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $2,016.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,801 in play. However, barring another crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,750. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,761 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,676.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,880. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day ($1,880) and R1 ($1,886) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($1,912) and the 100-day EMA ($1,923). However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA ($1,880) would leave S1 ($1,801) in view. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.