ETH Staking Inflow and Principal Withdrawal Projections Turn Bearish

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, ETH fell by 0.69% to end the day at $1,862.
• US regulatory risk, Fed Fear, and a bearish shift in the ETH withdrawal profile weighed.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$1,750.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.69% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 1.46% gain on Saturday, ETH ended the week down 12.18% to $1,862. Significantly, ETH fell short of the $1,900 handle for the second time since April 9.

After a mixed start to the day, ETH rose to a midday high of $1,883 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,895, ETH fell to a late afternoon low of $1,837. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,849 before a partial recovery to end the day at $1,862.

Staking Statistics and Withdrawal Profile Send Mixed Signals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows fell from 41,344 ETH on Saturday to 40,800 on Sunday. Despite the marked decline, staking levels on Sunday remained elevated compared with pre-Shapella Upgrade staking levels.

While the total value staked continued to move higher, the investors should monitor movement throughout the session. A further slowdown in the rate of increase could test buyer appetite.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 0.863 million ETH, equivalent to approximately $1.62 billion. Significantly, the withdrawal profile turned bearish overnight, with projections pointing to an upswing in principal withdrawals.

The Day Ahead

ETH staking statistics and withdrawal profile actuals and projections will continue to influence. A further decline in ETH staking inflows and a continued rise in principal withdrawals would send bearish signals.

Looking beyond the staking statistics, Fed Fear and an anti-crypto US Administration continue to test buyer appetite, leading to the ETH pullback from $2,100. A renewed SEC focus on staking could pressure staking inflows and ETH.

However, SEC v Ripple case updates and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will also influence. Investors should also track the crypto news wires for US lawmaker chatter following the European Parliamentary votes on MiCA.

Ethereum Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 0.59% to $1,873. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,850 before rising to a high of $1,890. The First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,884 capped the upside.

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

ETH needs to avoid the $1,861 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,884. A move through the morning high of $1,890 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,907 and resistance at $1,950. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,953.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,838 into play. However, barring another crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,800. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,815 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,769.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,883. The 50-day EMA crossed through the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day ($1,883) and R1 ($1,884) would support a breakout from R2 ($1,907) to give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($1,936). However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA ($1,883) would leave S1 ($1,838) in view. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.