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ETH to Retarget $1,750 on US Jobs Report and Shanghai Hard Fork News

By:
Bob Mason
Updated: Feb 3, 2023, 12:15 GMT+00:00

It was a mixed start to the day for ETH and BTC. While Shanghai hard fork news will influence, corporate earnings and US stats will also provide direction.

ETH and BTC - technical analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Thursday for bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH), with ETH extending its winning streak to three sessions.
  • Market sentiment toward the Shanghai hard fork delivered ETH support while BTC joined the broader crypto market in the red.
  • ETH and BTC also had a mixed start to the Friday session.

Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.06% on Thursday. Following a 3.60% rally on Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,643.

After a mixed morning session, ETH rose to a late afternoon high of $1,715 before hitting reverse. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,674 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,707. The reversal saw ETH slide to a late low of $1,626. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,583, ETH recovered to end the day flat.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.98%. Partially reversing a 2.54% gain from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $23,491. Despite the bearish session, BTC avoided a return to $23,000.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rally to an early high of $24,240. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,106 before sliding to a late low of $23,385. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,049, BTC revisited $23,586 before easing back.

Shanghai Hard Fork News Delivers ETH Support in a Bearish Backdrop

Progress toward the Ethereum Shanghai hard fork provided ETH price support on Thursday. Testing of the Zhejiang withdrawal testnet is underway, where users can simulate staked ETH withdrawals, one of the main features of the Shanghai hard fork.

While there were no updates to consider, interest continues to build. According to BeaconScan, the number of validators rose to 512,432 on Thursday, up from 495,204 on January 1.

Ethereum validators continue to rise.
BeaconScan Validators 030223

However, a gloomy Amazon.com (AMZN) outlook weighed, with US lawmakers and regulatory scrutiny of the crypto markets testing buyer appetite.

On Thursday, news hit the crypto wires of the US DoJ investigating Silvergate Bank for its dealings with FTX and Alameda Research. The latest investigation followed a call from the White House Administration to ramp up crypto market oversight in the wake of the FTX bankruptcy.

News of Kraken shutting down its Abu Dhabi office as part of its ongoing cost-cutting exercise was also market bearish.

From the US, economic indicators failed to influence, while Amazon.com earnings and forward guidance weighed on buyer appetite late in the Thursday session.

For the day ahead, investors should continue monitoring the news wires for updates on Zhejiang testing. However, US economic indicators will also draw interest, with the US Jobs Report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in focus. Corporate earnings results and outlooks will provide direction

Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) will release earnings results later today.

From the crypto wires, regulatory chatter will continue to influence, however. Investors should also track updates on FTX, Genesis, and the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 0.02% to $1,643. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,651 before falling to a low of $1,631.

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Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,661 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,697 and the Thursday high of $1,715. A return to $1,700 would signal a breakout session. However, economic indicators and Shanghai hard fork updates will have to be ETH-friendly to support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,750. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,839.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,608 in play. However, barring a broad-based crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,600 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,572. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,483.

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Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,610. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1,610) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,697) to target R2 ($1,750). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,610) and S1 ($1,608) would give the bears a run at the 100-day EMA ($1,577) and S2 ($1,572). A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.11% to $23,516. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $23,580 before falling to a low of $23,400.

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Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $23,705 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,026 and the Thursday high of $24,240. A return to $24,000 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires and the US Jobs Report will need to be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $24,560. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $25,415.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,171 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$23,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,850. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $21,995.

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Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,169. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($23,171) and the 50-day EMA ($23,169) would support a breakout from R1 ($24,026) to target R2 ($24,560). However, a fall through S1 ($23,171) and the 50-day EMA ($23,169) would give the bears a run at S2 ($22,850). A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

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About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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