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Ethereum: Getting Closer and Closer to The Rally to $10K+?

By:
Dr. Arnout Ter Schure
Updated: May 26, 2022, 22:33 UTC

ETH is likely completing an ending diagonal (ED) 5th wave at this stage.

Ethereum FX Empire

Ethereum Elliot Wave Analysis

Using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), I showed last week that Ethereum (ETH) was wrapping up its last 4th and 5th waves of the dreaded c-wave lower. See figure 1 below. I was looking for “(red) wave-iv is underway and should ideally subdivide …to the ideal target zone of around $2300+/100. Based on the more recent available price data, I have adjusted this target zone slightly lower ….

When it also completes, ETH should do one last stab lower for wave-V to ideally ~$1500+/-100.” Now, 4th waves are always real tricksters (see here), and all we got was ~$2150 as the anticipated subdivision did not materialize.

Figure 1. Ethereum daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

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The c-wave is wrapping up its last 5th wave.

Instead, the $2150K high was all off (red) intermediate wave-iv, and since then, the price action has been overlapping to the downside. What do I mean by “overlapping”? Three waves lower, followed by three waves back up, etc. The pattern morphs into an ending diagonal (ED) intermediate wave-v of (black) major wave-c of (blue) Primary IV. See Figure 1 above.

All ETH needs to do is complete the last (grey) minute wave-v of 5, and it has then technically done enough to complete the correction that started in November last year. A break back above the $2150K high will be the first confirmation that the rally to $10K+ has begun. Please note the positive divergences that are developing on the technical indicators: the MACD is on a buy and pointing up, while the RSI14 is making a higher low. These are additionally signs of a low being put into place.

Bottom Line and ETH Price Forecast

Over the past many weeks, the EWP has been able to forecast ETH’s price decline. A few minor tweaks were necessary as not every daily scribble can be known beforehand. But once these scribbles were identified and qualified, they all fitted without exception within the EWP-based path laid out many weeks ago:

  • Drop to the low $2000 region (achieved).
  • Multi-day bounce back to $2300+/-100 (almost reached as it stalled at $2150).
  • Final stab lower to ~$1500+/-100 (now underway).

ETH is likely completing an ending diagonal (ED) 5th wave at this stage. EDs are made up of five smaller waves (green 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 in Figure 1), of which their respective internals are three waves. So far, this appears to be the case, and wave-3of the ED is now about to complete. Thus ETH seems to be close to completing its correction, but it will have to rally back above $2150K to provide initial confirmation this is the case.

About the Author

Dr. Ter Schure founded Intelligent Investing, LLC where he provides detailed daily updates to individuals and private funds on the US markets, Metals & Miners, USD,and Crypto Currencies

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