Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH May Fall to $1.25K Amid Flaring US–Iran Tensions

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is flashing a bearish continuation setup as its four-hour chart forms a bear pennant after a steep selloff from above $2,100.

The pattern developed after ETH crashed toward the $1,520 area in early June. Since then, price has moved sideways inside a tightening triangle, with lower highs and higher lows compressing near $1,620.

That structure usually signals a pause inside a larger downtrend, not a full reversal.

ETH also remains below its 20-, 50-, and 200-period EMAs, showing that sellers still control the broader trend. The 20-EMA near $1,653 is acting as immediate resistance, while the 50-EMA near $1,718 adds another ceiling above it.

A decisive four-hour close below the pennant’s lower trendline could confirm the bearish continuation setup. Based on the flagpole height, the measured downside target sits near $1,250.

Bulls need to reclaim $1,680–$1,720 to weaken this bearish setup.

Iran War Adds Macro Pressure

The bearish setup is forming as renewed US-Iran hostilities keep traders defensive.

Asian stocks fell while oil prices rose after Iran and the US exchanged strikes, with Brent trading above $92 and WTI near $88.70. The move shows markets are still pricing geopolitical risk through higher energy prices and weaker risk appetite.

That matters for Ethereum because crypto usually struggles when oil shocks revive inflation fears. Higher energy prices can reduce expectations for rate cuts and keep liquidity conditions tight. In that environment, traders often cut exposure to volatile assets first.

ETH MVRV Bands Offer a Bullish Counter Case

Glassnode’s MVRV pricing bands offer a strong counterpoint to ETH’s bearish chart setup.

ETH has now slipped below the 0.8x realized price band, shown by the blue line. In simple terms, this means the market is pricing ETH below a historically depressed valuation level.

That usually happens when investors are sitting on heavy unrealized losses, and sentiment turns extremely negative.

But history shows this zone has often appeared near major bottoms, not at the start of deeper crashes.

In mid-2022, ETH fell below the blue band before bottoming near the $900–$1,000 area and later recovering strongly.

A similar move appeared again around late 2022, when ETH traded below the blue band before starting a multi-month rebound. The March–April 2026 drop is now testing the same stress zone.

ETH’s bear pennant still points toward $1,250, but the MVRV bands warn against chasing downside too aggressively. Historically, breaks below the blue band have marked capitulation zones where long-term buyers begin stepping in.